Betting preview: Roland Garros

Five years on from their first meeting on the clay in Paris in 2005 its still very much Nadal and Federer who dominate the betting market for the mens event.
 
Nadal is a top priced 4/9 with Federer available at around 11/2. 3rd favourite is Novak Djokovic at 33/1. The likes of Gulbis, Ferrer, Verdasco, Murray and Soderling are all about 50/1.
 
Rafa is about the same price this year as he was last year but i believe he is a much better bet at the odds this time than last time. Firstly, hes in better form going in - winning all 3 masters events whereas last year he exhausted himself by playing too much and then got beat in the Madrid final by Federer.
 
Importantly, 2 of the big players who typically pose a threat to Nadal - Davydenko and Del Potro - are both out injured. At the start of the year when Del Po's injury problems were not known to be severe i had him earmarked as a very possible winner of this years French. Hes one of the few players who can just hit Nadal off the court. But it all seems to have gone very wrong for Del Potro since with wrist surgery and even some talk of him suffering panic attacks at times.
 
To a lesser extent Davydenko would also have posed a threat to Nadal - he had the game to at least give him a very tough match in the quarter or semi finals.
 
So with those 2 guys out of the running the list of players who could beat Nadal is diminishing.
 
My list of potential Rafa beaters on Chatrier Court now comprises just 3 names:
 
Roger Federer
Ernests Gulbis
Novak Djokovic
 
Other than these 3 i simply see nobody beating him this time around. You might wonder why Soderling is not on there. Well its always harder to back something up second time than it is to do it first time. If Soderling should face Nadal this year there will be pressure. People will be asking "Can you beat him again?". I think the answer will be no.
 

Guys like Ferrer and Verdasco just play too similar to Rafa to have any chance. The only chance against him is to attack so it may seem strange to say this but i think you can rule out any clay courter beating him here. If someone beats him they will have to come out and play a hard court game on the clay. Deny him time, attack at every opportunity. Over 5 sets its virtually impossible to do but it can be done. Only by Federer, Gulbis or Djokovic though in my opinion.

 
One thing which is a slight negative for Nadal is the court surface on Phillippe Chatrier which last year was said to have been prepared differently than previous years. I think last year the court had very little top dressing on it so played faster and more like a hard court. It was still a very bouncy court as its always been but the ball didnt grab the surface as much so it shot through more.
 
Now this change wouldnt have come by accident im sure. Was it the case that the French organisers got sick of him dominating the event and decided to prepare the court accordingly? Im sure there was the odd Tennis fan who was a little tired of him winning every year. Certainly the crowd during the Soderling match were very pro Soderling. Nadal later commented in a press conference that he thought the crowd should have supported him more as 4 time defending champion. His Uncle Toni followed up with some comments on Spanish radio calling the French crowd "stupid".
 
Hopefully these things are long forgotten by the French crowd and they will get behind him a bit more this year.
 
So is 4/9 value thats the question? Id say its marginal value. There is always a chance that a huge performance could come from someone as Soderling proved last year. But i dont think the chance of that is very high at all. There will definitely be worse bets struck this World Cup summer.
 
In the womens event i fancy Venus Williams to go very well at 16/1. She has never won there before but her time is running out now shes struck 30 so she should be very keen. Im happy to rule Serena out this time. Likewise Stosur who is playing man like tennis but she will bottle it very badly should she get near the title. The book is still out on Henin i think - odds of 9/4 could look big after a few rounds though. Jankovic should go close but its possible she has the bridesmaids tag for life.