Will 2010 bring the return or the decline of the Spanish Bull?

Not so long ago, the great rivalry for the Nr. 1 ranking was going in one direction. The 5-year long reign and supremacy of Roger Federer was about to come to a shocking end, and he would be permanently de-throned by arch rival Rafael Nadal.

Apart from other players, Rafa had developed exactly the right game not only to trouble the great man, but also to beat him continously. Fed looked noticeably worried and sometimes even puzzled on court against the raging bull from Mallorca, and even if he could still fight him off in two consecutive Wimbledon finals, the painful clay tennis lessons he got from the Spaniard at Roland Garros sent a signal to the tennis world that things would soon change at the very top.

Losing to Nadal at both the French and at SW19 in 2008 and at the OZ Open in 2009 seemed like too much to handle for the Swiss superstar, while the furious power-game of his Spanish rival looked more and more invincible. Rafa managed to win all of his clay court matches as a warm-up for Roland Garros, and it all looked like formality in Paris once again.

But out of nowhere, we witnessed the biggest shock upset of the decade, as the Spanish Bull lost in the 4th round against Sweden's hard-hitting Robin Söderling. He didn't have an answer for Söderling who simply was the better player throughout the match. Seeking for a logical explanation, people started to speculate about Nadal's injury problems, something that otherwise seemed impossible for this super-fit and muscular athlete.

Later, the fears of a developing knee injury proved to be valid as the Spanish hero withdrew from Wimbledon, "handing" the trophy and the Nr. 1 ranking back to Roger Federer. But probably very few would have imagined at that point that the knee injury and the shock exit at the French would mean a much bigger setback.

After many weeks of rest and therapy, Nadal returned to the Tour, only to be blown away by Del Potro in the US. Open quarterfinals. He visibly lost some weight and a lot of muscles in an attempt to ease the huge strain on his knees, but this strategy backfired completely as his firepower was reduced, leaving him an easy prey for any hard-hitting tall player who can hit winners below shoulder-height off his high bouncing top-spin shots.

Ever since, the man from Manacor has not been near his brilliant best. After a very weak performance at the Masters, he showed some of his old abilities at Melbourne Park in January, but was sent crashing out by Andy Murray, giving up the third set because of renewed injury problems. After this match, there was serious talk about Nadal simply blaiming his hurting loss on another injury. Whether these allegations can be true or not, it's difficult to say.

As we look forward to the rest of the 2010 season, one can't help feeling that this looks like the decisive year for the Spanish champion. And I have to say that even if the "return" of Roger Federer came as a small surprise for most of us last year, it would take a lot more for Nadal to achieve the same feat.

The number one question is of course about his own fitness level, and, more importantly, his mental strength. He definitely looks a lot more shaky than before and the top players are not afraid of him any more after Söderling paved the way for them in terms of using the right tactics against the Spaniard. Also, Federer has lost his "Nadal-complex" and can play him much more relaxed now, having reached all his dreams last year.

I also have to say (knowing that most Nadal-supporters will not accept my opinion), that even when the Spaniard was on top of his game, he reached his enormous successes by compensating his lack of congenital talent with sheer power, determination and furious energy, all based on a defensive game which he also could turn into offence any time. Instead of Federer's natural brilliance in technique, style and movement, he needed to work extremely hard physically to get to the same results. Somehow, his game has always smelled a bit sweaty and over-forced, and it looks like all the years spent on this path finally take their toll.

Regarding 2010, one can expect that Nadal will still perform reasonably well on his favourite clay surface. He is still the best clay courter around and should prevail in most of his matches. But I would say that he is no longer the clear favourite for Roland Garros. Fed has won this tournament now, the spell has been broken and he can play without any pressure. It should be a 50-50% affair between the two, should it come to another show-down between the two.

After the clay season however, i find it difficult to believe that Nadal can once again perform on the same level as during his incredible run 2 years ago. Even if fully fit, his opponents seem to have his number now, being able to play him in a completely different way. Considering his worn-out knees and other injury possibilities, this looks even more probable.

One thing is certain - whatever happens this year, he has managed to be the one and only rival and opposite pole of Roger Federer during the past few years, and for this alone he should be regarded as one of the best players of all time.