Will Roger continue his Wimbledon Fed-era?

Debate will always rage as to which player is the "greatest of all time", or the GOAT to use the American parlance. And this time last year, after he secured the only Grand Slam to elude him - the French Open - and then won a record 15th Major here at Wimbledon a month later, Roger Federer was most people's choice.

A 16th Grand Slam in Australia followed in early 2010, which was also his 23rd consecutive appearance in a semi-final or better at a major - an incredible achievement. With his arch nemesis Rafael Nadal in the middle of an 11-month slump without a title, it seemed only a matter of time before the Swiss maestro broke yet another amazing record of longevity - Pete Sampras' total of 286 weeks as world No.1.

And then the tide began to change - as it did back in 2008 when Rafa thrashed him in straight sets at Roland Garros then followed it up by doing the "Borg double" and stealing Federer's Wimbledon crown off him in an epic final which went on deep into the evening. After success in Melbourne, Federer went into a relative slump (by his lofty standards). More worryingly for a player who has built a reputation for mental fortitude, he was failing to take match points. He squandered three of them against Marcos Baghdatis in a third-round exit at Indian Wells - the first time he had failed to win after holding a match point since the epic Rome final of 2006 (where he lost to... Nadal, of course).

Another Masters tournament and another defeat followed, again with match point squandered. Tomas Berdych dumped him out of Miami in the fourth round, and then the tour moved to the European clay. And while Nadal managed a "red slam", winning in Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid and Roland Garros, the Federer slide continued. He decided not to go to Monaco then lost his opener in Rome - admittedly to a resurgent Ernests Gulbis - but he was beginning to create the wrong kind of records. This was the first time that he had lost his season-opener on red dirt since 2000, and the first time since 2002 that he had fallen at three consecutive Masters 1000s before the quarter-finals since 2002.

He went to Estoril to try to build up some confidence, but even that failed to work as he fell to Albert Montanes in the semis. At Madrid he made the final, but that man Nadal stood in his way. And then along came Robin Soderling in the French Open quarter-finals. Going into the match, Federer had a 12-0 record against the giant Swede, a 24th consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals and a record-equalling 286th week as world no.1 on the line - and lost it all.

Gallows humour was the order of the day in his press conference ("I now have a consecutive quarter-final streak going, right?!") but it was clear that all was not well in the world of Federer. Confidence breeds confidence, and while Nadal has it in abundance after winning 5,000 ranking points during the European spring, Federer's is falling fast, so much so that he even failed to defend his Halle grass title last week.

Gone are the days when Federer's quite simply superior level of tennis was enough to beat any given opponent on any given day. While he has suffered off and on at the hands of Nadal for half a decade, there now seems to be a different type of player capable of knocking the Swiss out of his rhythm. Big hitters such as Soderling, Gulbis and Juan Martin del Potro used to be meat and drink to Federer, but nowadays they are able to feast on his second service and put him immediately on the back foot. "It can be unpleasant because you have less to do and you can't play your game, you can't impose yourself," said Federer of his clashes with the more powerful players. "If you serve 225 - 230 kph, you can still hit through the court on the serve regardless of the conditions. I may be lacking those 5 to 10ks extra to hit through a guy on the serve."

As at the French, he has a heck of a lot to play for in SW19 over the coming fortnight. A seventh title (to equal Sampras' record) and 2,000 ranking points to defend here and 4,200 in total by the end of the US Open (and while he can only lose points, Nadal can only gain them after spending months on the sidelines last year). There is also of course the fact that Centre Court is his own private garden. Federer has played seven finals since 2003, winning six of them.

When Nadal was in the process of taking the ranking from him at the French, the Swiss was sober in his assessment. "I'm not going to support his opponents in the quarters, semis or whatever here just so that he doesn't take the No.1 spot off me," he said as the Majorcan homed in and eventually took the top spot with his defeat of Soderling in the final. "The best player deserves to have the top ranking and at the moment, he is the best player."

Wimbledon however means everything to him. When Nadal had the audacity to steal his crown in 2008, Federer let his guard slip in the post-match conference. "Losing at the French meant nothing compared with this. This... it's a disaster," was his miserable assessment. Defeat on the hallowed SW19 lawns in early July (or heaven forbid in late June) would be of similar proportions.

Victory however is very much in his grasp. Last year, he proved that he still has the all-round game to defeat the best that seven opponents can throw at him over the space of Wimbledon fortnight, outlasting Andy Roddick in a classic final. This is grass, and this is best of five sets - both of which speak in favour of Federer. He is certainly going to have to work for it though. After a potentially quiet first week, his run-in from the quarter-finals onwards could read Tomas Berdych, Roddick and Nadal, or alternatively Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic/Novak Djokovic and Soderling/Andy Murray.

While Federer is one of the greatest players of all time (and plenty would argue he is the greatest ever), the old adage says that you are only as good as your last game. The man from Basle will be hoping that his last game on grass this year comes on Sunday 4 July, and ends with him kneeling in joy on Centre Court...